On the Money: A's Win - Gary Armida's Blog

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Gary Armida's Blog

On the Money: A's Win Stuck

Posted on October 4, 2012 at 10:55 AM.

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Nobody saw this coming. As much as we scrutinize the game, turn it upside down, watch it, break it down into numbers, and have those gut instincts, not one single person foresaw the Oakland A�s as the 2012 West Division champions. The A�s provided for the single best moment of the 2012 season when they beat the Texas Rangers 12-5 to sweep the three game series and take over first place on the last day of the season.

It is the only day that they�ve been in first place.

The Texas Rangers held the division lead for the past 186 days. The farthest they were ever behind all season was one game back on April 7th and, of course, today.

Calling the A�s miraculous doesn�t really encapsulate their season. They were nine games under .500 on June 9th. They were 13 games behind the Texas Rangers on June 30th. But, since that day, the A�s have been one of the best teams in the game. They won 19 of 24 games in July, which coincided with the Rangers� worst month of the season. The A�s followed July with an 18-10 August and a 17-11 September. Most importantly, they are 3-0 in October. Miraculous doesn�t describe the A�s. They were a .500 team by the All-Star break; the talent, especially the young pitching talent was there already. This wasn�t a team that was going to crash in the second half. Instead, they won 51 of their last 76 games.

That isn�t miraculous; that�s just being good.

But, how did everyone miss the Oakland A�s? How did everyone predict what turned out to be a 94 win team to be below .500?

Maybe they were �that team�.

The easy answer is that this is just the nature of sports. Every year there is a surprise team that almost nobody sees. The Rays were that team back in 2008. The Rockies surprised in 2009. The Diamondbacks were that team last season. That is what makes baseball so great. As much as it can be quantified, there is still so much that unfolds before our eyes. There is so much that we don�t know, which is why every analyst isn�t an expert, but ultimately a speculative spectator.

But, that�s why we love baseball. The unexpected, positive vibe of spring training that every team feels can actually be a reality for a team we dismiss before the games even start to count. Conceivably, that could be the story of the Oakland A�s.

Billy Beane�s objective last winter was to trim payroll to its lowest. The A�s had just lost any hope of getting a new stadium. Essentially, the A�s had to start from scratch. There are very few carryovers from the 2011 team. To illustrate, nine of the 16 players who appeared in game 162 were acquired since last winter. It was all started when Beane traded his talented, young ace Gio Gonzalez to the Nationals for a group including Derek Norris, Brad Peacock, AJ Cole, and Tommy Milone. Beane then traded 24 year old right hander Trevor Cahill to the Diamondbacks for Ryan Cook, Colin Cowgill, and Jarrod Parker.

The A�s traded away their two best pitchers and signed the 39 year old Bartolo Colon to fill one of the slots. Their other major move of the offseason was signing Cuban Yoenis Cespedes. There was no doubt that the 26 year old had a tremendous skill set, but he looked more like Pedro Cerrano with each breaking ball he saw. Everyone liked the signing, but there wasn�t much reason to believe that Cespedes would be dominant in 2012.

Beane addressed his poor offense by signing Jonny Gomes and Brandon Moss to free agent deals. Certainly Gomes is a good hitter against southpaws, but he is the type of player a contending team would sign rather than the rebuilding A�s. Moss was organizational depth. Beane added couple of trades that also looked like rebuilding/salary dump moves when he sent All-Star closer Andrew Bailey to Boston for outfielder Josh Reddick and two prospects. He flipped two pitchers to the Rockies for left handed hitter Seth Smith. Those additions were hardly ones that would make the A�s a pennant winner.

It all worked.

It worked even with Bartolo Colon being suspended after 24 above average starts. Cespedes made great adjustments and learned to hit the breaking ball and is one of the few players who can dominate a game. He finishes the season with a .292/.354/.504 slash line with 25 doubles, 5 triples, 23 home runs, 82 RBI, and 16 stolen bases. Josh Reddick blasted 32 home runs. Gomes and Smith have combined for 32 home runs and 98 RBI. The organizational depth guy? Moss compiled an OPS of .948 with 21 home runs in 264 at bats. Beane�s moves didn�t make the A�s offense prolific, but he made them powerful as the A�s ranked 6th in home runs. They ranked 9th in runs scored. Although they set an American League record for team strikeouts, the offense was improved enough.

But, the positive vibe that the A�s had in the spring wasn�t about 2012. It was really about 2014. Jarrod Parker had the ceiling of an ace. Tommy Milone was looked at as a 5th starter. Ryan Cook looked like the would be the closer of the future. Derek Norris had power from the catching spot, but would start the season in the Minors.

It all went on fast forward from there. Milone was nearly unbeatable at home. Cook was an all-star reliever who actually was the closer for a while during the season. Parker made his A�s debut on April 25th and started well. He struggled in July and August, but since September, he has been the ace the A�s foresaw when they acquired him as he has gone 4-1 with a 2.63 ERA in six September starts. Derek Norris came up and claimed the starting catcher job. He hit his seventh home run in the clinching game.

Their success wasn�t all about Beane�s offseason moves. It was about his collection of talent. Once the A�s lost Colon and then Brandon McCarthy to injury, Beane�s rotation was filled with five rookies. In fact, the A�s have had a rookie start 103 of their 162 games. Beane does get credit for that. Their player development staff gets credit for getting five rookies ready to compete well enough to win a division title.

All of it was unexpected, especially now. Beane was collecting some high end pitching talent, but it wasn�t supposed to arrive this year. But, the A�s don�t really feel like one of those positive vibe teams from spring training. They are a very different team from the one that broke camp. Aside from the rotation changes, Norris is now the starting catcher. Chris Carter and Brandon Moss play first. Stephen Drew is the shortstop. Josh Donaldson broke camp as the third baseman and was eventually sent down, only to come back and finish the season as the starting first baseman. This isn�t the team that started the season.

On second thought, maybe instead of positive vibes, this success really is because of Billy Beane.

Billy Beane is one of the more polarizing figures in baseball. Because of the book and movie, he is either over-praised or under-appreciated; he�s always misunderstood. Beane doesn�t operate under some wizardry ideology that nobody else operates under. He doesn�t have a magic formula. This team isn�t some new fangled stat driven collection of spare parts that somehow fit together. Beane didn�t just become smart again because all of this worked. He didn�t outsmart the rest of Major League Baseball. His emphasis on developing pitching came to fruition. His two major pitching trades yielded a great return that was immediately available to help. But, to give Beane complete credit and complete adulation is just as simple minded as saying he hasn�t won a championship.

Maybe it was destiny.

It makes for a good narrative anyway. We talk about teams of destiny a lot in sports. We use this label for teams that we don�t feel are talented, but get on this incredible roll to win a title. We use it when things seem to go a team�s way. Josh Hamilton dropping a routine flyball during the final game fits that storyline. But, sports aren�t about destiny. Destiny negates the talent of Cespedes and the adjustments he made. Destiny negates the backend of the A�s bullpen getting it together in the second half of the season. It negates Parker evolving into an ace. It negates the maturity of AJ Griffin. It negates Dan Straily being able to help with seven starts. It negates Tommy Milone pitching better than a number five starter.

The A�s are the American League West champions because they had a talented pitching staff that was able to support a middling offense. They won 94 games not because of the destiny or their General Manager, or some positivity. It wasn�t a miracle. They won because of the talent that everyone missed. That happens sometimes. We talk about sample size a lot in Baseball. 162 games doesn�t really allow for flukes. We were surprised by a team that had zero expectations back in April. The A�s went from being as expected, to playing better, to being a tough team, to being �hey they�re aren�t bad, to being �are they for real?�, to being �hey, they could win this.�

It�s why we watch. It�s why we love the sport. The Oakland A�s played well enough long enough and at the right time to catch the two-time defending league champions. The young pitching staff matured all at once and won a pennant. Now, they are set to face Justin Verlander, Miguel Cabrera, and Prince Fielder in round one. Despite having the second best record in the American League, they will be an underdog heading into the series and as long as they are in the playoffs. Few will predict a series victory for them.

But, that�s fitting, isn�t it?